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identify potential opportunities, challenges, and likely future developments"//
—[[http://www.shapingto... “black swan” events. These are events that are unlikely to happen, but when they do they can affect mas... * Observe
* train to direct your attention like a beam of light, from wide to narrow, focused to ... different points of view, expert or enthusiasts alike.
* Ask questions. Don't attempt to fix thing
ns and unconscious collective patterns, which are likely to be overlooked or ignored in predominantly ce... ro environments that underlie the situation you’d like to pre-enact. It contextualises the specific pre-... his framing to the participants and add something like the following instructions:
//'During the pre-en... this technology could be used, what it would look like, etc. Find the simplest possible way to prototype
e are you in this world? What does your life look like? Where do you live? What do you do? How do you co... municate in this world? What does technology look like? (etc.)
And then, when you are ready, let go of ... implementing the rules? What does your work look like in this world? How do you live? Do you travel? An... e today. Nothing is the same. What does that look like? What does it feel like? What can you smell, tast
life' of a protagonist from the future might look like. The technique adds rich details and grounds the ... ur own assumptions about what daily life might be like for their characters.
* Step 1a (optional): Id... il in the stories:
* What is your character like? What does your character look like? Think of internal and external characteristics like emotional, int
f the core question from Step 1. Some drivers are likely to remain more or less fixed, constant and 'certain', like demographics, while others are mostly in flux and... back to get a sense what each of the worlds look like. How would you answer your core question (step 1)... of the scenarios? What would your decisions look like in different futures? Explore what would have to
rldbuilding can add new dimensions to a scenario, like adding colour to a black-and-white movie. Worldbu... Have a discussion about what this world might be like on the surface:
* What are the visible charac... urbanisation…)?
* What is the local setting like (landscape, weather, architecture, infrastructure…)?
* What are the inhabitants like? What do they eat and wear? Where do they live?
a School in Hawaii, most images of the future are likely to fall into one or another of these four gener... tures: The task is to envision what life might be like in each of the four worlds, focusing if appropria... on worksheets), such as:
* What would life be like for the majority of people in such a world? What ... -existent or irrelevant now)?
* How probable (likely to actually occur) is the future described in y
start walking, changing directions when you feel like it. Keep the box for a while, then swap the box w... e, give the participants a 'box' by holding a box-like space in between your hands (different sizes for ... t a complex story can be distilled and visualised like a photograph. It can be used as a warming-up exer... aking a gesture of giving). Try an inclusive word like 'we' or 'our' to make the story inclusive of ever
ns in the present can decide which future is more likely to unfold. The technique rarely produces radica... of your core question or issue. Some drivers are likely to remain more or less fixed, constant and 'certain', like demographics, while others are mostly in flux and
urselves. We might think we know what it would be like, but our assumptions often fail us. Why would it ... ces in which we might 'rehearse' what it might be like to live in these futures.
The emerging field of ... iences of what life in a proposed future might be like.
* [[Prehearsal]]
* [[Guerilla futures]]
make themselves comfortable (in any position they like) and explain that you are going to guide them thr... finds their spot, guide the group using something like the following instructions:
Step 1: //'Focus you... ace, at this moment, and experience what it feels like to be fully present and attentive.'//
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bish bins and other surroundings of other people. Like a detective, we can put together the story of a p... e constructed to explain what is going on. People like to sit in chairs, flick through magazines, open f... e or less detailed aspects of the world you would like to build.
Break this down to a group of characte
robable is closest to our everyday present and is likely to come to pass if nothing much changes; the pl... rface, but several plausible, possible and even unlikely scenarios hide in plain sight if the reader pay
chieving this goal get you?
* What will it look like if you don’t achieve it?
* What can we agree on...
TIME - Organised
* Which option(s) would you like to you pursue together?
* What exactly will you
be divided into three or four columns. Something like this:
<html><a href="http://silberzahnjones.file... rue but are not completely certain about? What is likely to be the case?
* Step 4: When this conversa
