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en a group has a complex but burning question. In these situations finding out what is most important and... the 'most important and most uncertain' drivers. These are your critical uncertainties which will consti... the axes of your scenarios.
Think about each of these critical uncertainties as a continuum from one ex... hould capture the 'essence' of the scenario. From these outlines you can then write out the scenarios as
e so called “wild cards”, or “black swan” events. These are events that are unlikely to happen, but when ... at implications a particular trend could have for these issues.
Here's an example of a [[https://static... anging patterns can all be considered megatrends. These are the forces that are more stable than trends a... adjust the system)
An alternative description of these phases: FAFA (from [[integral futures]])
*
vers are singled out as 'critical uncertainties'. These are used to plot horizontal and vertical axes, wh... the 'most important and most uncertain' drivers. These are your critical uncertainties which will consti... capture the 'essence' of the scenario.
- From these scenario skeletons you can __write out the scenar
per layer:
* what is the aim for engaging with these stakeholders? how are/will they be involved?
... n...)
* what, when and how to communicate with these stakeholders?
* (eg. what should these stakeholders know about, which methods and communication too
with futures. In this section we describe some of these capacities and suggest ways to develop them. Some of these mindsets may require lifestyle changes and years
t? Which things are not being modelled? Even once these questions have been answered, it can still be mis... icant decisions which collectively form patterns. These patterns produce data which can be analysed to be
might 'rehearse' what it might be like to live in these futures.
The emerging field of experiential futu... nd 'in-the-wild' experiences of possible futures. These techniques build on theatre improvisation, disast
future are likely to fall into one or another of these four generic categories. The technique is quite s... r best everyone in the group, to write answers to these questions in the form of a short scenario. Invite
, as well as the secondary (media) responses that these interventions seem to elicit."
From: [[http://ww... al, which is a prerequisite for political impact. These are not overarching, masterly interrogations -- ‘
include easy to follow step-by-step instructions. These provide a good place for the novice to start, as ... ract general principles or incorporate aspects of these methods into an existing practice. In addition to
, context or environment that we wish to explore. These techniques may help distinguish constants from va... ns about the situations from which futures arise. These techniques can be useful outside of futures pract
w we ask you to make do with the following notes. These are perhaps best seen as a collection of question... create in the space without intention.
Of course these are not hard categories, but they can help choose
tends to muddle the clarity of a 'forward view'. These aspects might be too slow and colossal to observe... e past and present for signs of emerging futures. These signs are also known as trends, tendencies, (weak
know or assume about the past and present. We see these techniques as different types of lenses through w... ituation accordingly. We invite the reader to use these techniques enhanced by a playful 'what-if' mindse
we believe is essential when sending probes into these realms. Futuring can be a complex activity involv... cess towards desired outcomes. We have structured these approaches in three sections: //aptitudes//, //te
